Alpharetta, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

093
FXUS62 KFFC 262012
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
412 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
      thunderstorms will be the primary concern.

    - Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal averages.


Current radar loop shows some isolated thunderstorms moving into
NW GA. The afternoon convection has taken a bit longer today to
get started because the area was so worked over from yesterdays
activity but, ample instability is again developing. Seeing MLCAPE
values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg across the region with ML
Lapse Rates around 6 to 6.5. While things are not as unstable as
yesterday, there will still be sufficient support for at least a
few severe thunderstorms with a primary risk for strong downburst
wind gusts as well as a few instances of hail up to size of dime
to quarter size. For this reason, SPC has upgraded portions of the
area including the ATL metro area into a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5 risk) with the rest of the area still under a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 or 5). Storms could persist into the late evening.

On Friday, little change in the overall pattern and environment is
expected. With the area remaining in southwest flow around the
periphery of the western Atlantic high, diurnally driven
convection is again expected. Also, strong to severe isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible with an attendant strong
downburst wind potential.

As for temperatures, forecast highs Friday should be a couple of
degrees below Todays highs for most of the area. It will still be
hot with heat index values peaking in the 95 to 100 range for
North and Central GA.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Key Messages:

  - Very moist forecast, with diurnally driven convection every day.

  - Severe not anticipated at this time, but some uncertainty.

Forecast:

Long term forecast is looking quite moist thanks to a series of
passing systems to the north and yet another TUTT breaking off in
the Atlantic into a closed low and retrograding towards the CWA.
PWATs over the long term period hover above average for this time of
year, which is saying something in late June, and the forecast
surface dewpoints reflect it with daily Tds reaching into 70s across
the entire CWA. Ensembles are pretty consistent with the rainfall -
some differences arise towards the end of the long term period where
the GFS and some of its members are a bit more aggressive in
developing a surface low along the gulf that pushes yet another wave
of moisture into the CWA by midweek of next week that may lead to
even greater rainfall amounts ahead of an approaching frontal system
that is driven towards the area. Currently, most of this rainfall
looks to be diurnally driven, meaning greatest chances of rain and
storms will be in the afternoon to evening hours. Repeated rounds of
daily rainfall may lead to some flash flooding concerns, especially
in more urban areas, though hard to pinpoint any potential locations
to be concerned about this far in advance.

Severe chances are looking low over the time period at this time, or
at least no more than your typical summer day with afternoon storms.
Our upper level lapse rates return to normal, and within most of the
guidance the retrograding upper level low doesn`t quite make it over
the CWA before it begins to fill. However, this upper low does
represent a bit of uncertainty - if it were to move over the CWA, it
could bring in some better lapse rates as cooler air moves in aloft
that could create better instability and potential for severe
storms. Will need to keep an eye on this going forward, but current
ensemble consensus is to keep this feature offshore.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions across the area but looking for convection to get
going in the next few hours. Should see another round of SHRA/TSRA
this afternoon and evening with the best chance for the TAF sites
happening around sunset (give or take an hour or two). Winds
should stay mainly out of the W-NW in the 5-10kt range but will
see some gusty winds to 30kt in and around any convective
activity. VSBYs expected to stay in the VFR range but like the
winds could see some MVFR VSBYs in and around the thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  92  70  90 /  30  60  40  60
Atlanta         72  91  71  90 /  40  60  40  50
Blairsville     64  88  65  86 /  30  70  40  70
Cartersville    69  92  70  90 /  40  60  40  60
Columbus        72  92  71  91 /  30  50  40  60
Gainesville     70  91  71  89 /  40  60  40  60
Macon           71  92  71  91 /  20  60  40  60
Rome            69  91  71  89 /  40  60  30  60
Peachtree City  69  91  69  90 /  30  60  40  50
Vidalia         72  93  71  91 /  20  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011-012-
019-020-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...01